CALGARY,
January 12, 2011 – Alberta's
energy sector has re-awakened from recession and should fuel above-average
growth in 2011 and beyond,
according to the Provincial Monitor report released today by BMO Capital
Markets Economics.
“Drilling activity in the province was 31 per cent above year-ago
levels through September, and rig utilization was at nearly 50 per cent
in October compared to just 22 per cent in the same month last year,” according
to Robert Kavcic, Economist, BMO Capital Markets. “At the same
time, exploration land sales topped $2 billion in the first three quarters
of the year, already surpassing the record set in 2005. While Alberta
expects stagnant conventional crude and weaker natural gas production
in the next two years, raw bitumen production is expected to grow about
10 per cent per year to more than 2 million barrels per day.”
While Alberta saw 3.6 per cent GDP growth in 2010, the province is still
a long way from the capacity constraints of the commodity boom. As a
result, an immediate return to a sub-4 per cent jobless rate, lofty wage
growth and rampant housing starts is unlikely.
While the energy sector is
humming, the housing sector has softened. Existing home sales were
20 per cent below year-ago levels in November,
average prices are still about 6 per cent below the 2007 peak and starts
have lost momentum after a strong bounce in 2009. “Given the pre-recession
excesses in this sector, and current market conditions that somewhat
looser than the rest of Canada, growth in the housing sector is expected
to be modest in 2011,” said Mr. Kavcic.
After lagging somewhat early
in the recovery, Alberta's labour
market is now gaining momentum. Private-sector jobs were up 3.3 per cent
year-over-year in the fourth quarter and the unemployment rate has moved
sharply lower to 5.6 per cent. “The private sector is at the forefront
of employment growth in Alberta,” said Bill Hogg, District Vice-President,
Commercial, Alberta, BMO Bank of Montreal. “We can expect Alberta
job growth to lead the country in the coming year.”
The Province of Alberta widened its fiscal 2010/2011 deficit estimate
by $250 million to $5.0 billion, due to lower income tax and non-renewable
resource revenues.
The complete report can be found at www.bmocm.com/economics.
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Media
Contact:
Laurie Grant, Vancouver, laurie.grant@bmo.com, (604) 665-7596